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$1000 LUNA by End of [REDACTED] is True!? Calculating LUNA Price on UST Demand with PhD Murray Rudd


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LUNA is different. But why? Because, unlike other coins, the price of LUNA is not only driven by demand. As LUNA is burned to mint UST, the price of LUNA has to rise. Sounds like a function to calculate. As that is what Murray Rudd did. Today, I deep dive with Murray and calculated the price of LUNA.

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00:00 Intro & Murray
04:44 Basis LUNA
09:17 The Model
14:10 UST Growth
19:22 LUNA Burn
25:54 Price Model
32:12 LUNA Price
38:06 Forecast

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Twitter Murray https://twitter.com/crypto_rudd

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36 Comments

  1. This model is based on the fact that circulating supply is coming down quite fast due to high burn of Luna as UST is at max daily mint. Circlulating supply today is 373m – Jan 1st 2022 it was LOWER at 361m. From April 2021 to november supply went from 380m to 480m. The injections from LFG seems to at least pace burn over time keeping circulating supple between 365 to 450 range. Here the assumption and graph assumes Luna supply is 213m by 1st Jan 2023 – for that to happen supply cannot get more injections and that happens constantly !!

  2. I love your content. It's funny how some people out there still haven't accepted that crypto currencies continue to change the world globally. It's hard these days for anyone who is against it. What I feel from a trader's perspective that we really need more experts in the field to educate newbie’s / investors on how the community works, the price of BTC has been fluctuating lately which means the market is currently open and you are not Be able to tell whether it is going to be too bearish or bullish, this uncertainty pushes most traders away and forces investors to hold on. I would say it is completely wrong to just sit back and wait for a few losses is perhaps the wrong mindset for an investor because, as an investor, you will find ways to keep getting and topping up more and more coins should be our top priority, to make a profit. It all depends on the pattern you are trading in and the source of your strategies as well. I started with 0.2 BTC and have accumulated over 4.5 BTC in just 3 weeks, with the correct trading strategy given to me by an experienced trader, Mr. Edward Rowe. His methods are top notch and profitable and he can easily be contacted via Telegram: @EdwardRowe

  3. Bro, I just wanted to thank you for all you do. I saw terra bites mention this pricing model on their stream last night and meant to read the whole post. Now today I’m scrolling yt to see what to put on while I work out and you have the author on your channel! Wow 🤩 keep up the great work

  4. Do i understand this correctly, that this assumptions dont include other Stables on terra except of UST? Like if there is adoption EUR (EUT) can be also used by few hundred milion people in EU

  5. And the interesting thing is these $200, $900, and $7,000 predictions for EOY 2022, 23, 24 don't account for increased speculative demand for LUNA – as discussed. Historically the market cap of LUNA has been 2 to 5x that of the circulating UST. So with $30B of UST a $60B LUNA at the end of 20222 is not even that aggressive. With the growth in crypto market, increased speculation it is easy to imagine much higher market cap EOY 2023 or even sooner…

  6. Love this content, and while I admire Dr. Rudd's work, I think it likely understates the nearer term (i.e., the next year or so) potential for the LUNA price, because I believe the people who are most confident in and knowledgeable regarding future UST growth are the ones who will be bidding up LUNA in advance of it.

  7. The big question is in the regulation of stablecoins. I am very curious about the position of algorithmic stablecoins in this regulation. Due to the high adoption of decentralization, regulation could be very beneficial for UST if they are unable to ban it.

  8. What if TFL hit the Armageddon button and burns all their Luna? I'm not sure if that is a likely scenario but I've seen it mentioned on twits.

  9. What happens when there is no more circulating Luna to be burnt for UST? What happens then?

  10. Great content. But is it realistic? It presupposes that there won't be any competitor to anchor in the future, and also that anchor will be sustainable. Luna is only appealing because of anchors rate, not because of its blockchain tech. In addition, stablecoin regulatoins are very likely, especially for algorythmic ones without a fiat backing. Sure, no rewards without risk, but you may emphasize both sides of the equation.

  11. While the financial analysis is great, I am stunned at the lack of discussion of fundaments. 1000 $LUNA wont happen unless 2 conditions are met: 1. Number of new wallets (new entrants into crypto) grows massively 2. $UST becomes standard for DeFi across blockchains. Right now, it is used only on Terra blockchain. It needs to displace USDT and/or USDC for this to happen.

  12. If you read this comment, you are at the right spot at the right time. Enjoy the ride!

  13. Thank you Danku!!! amazing content as usual. Thanks for being on Spaces today too!!!

  14. Terra $UST is gradually proving itself to be the stablecoin of choice for operating in decentralised finance ($DEFI)! Very few truly appreciate how massive this will be $Luna

  15. If you take the model and "run" it from dec 2020 until jan 2022..how does it look, does it give the "expected" results?

  16. So what happens to the model as UST yield goes down (which it must as supply of UST increases), which could very well lower the velocity of UST growth? What will continue to drive UST demand growth?

  17. Danku, I have a question. What do you feel about the cyclical nature of Luna/Terra that might end up being self collapsing? ie. The fact that Anchor is supported by Luna staking for returns, Luna is supported by burning UST, and UST is supported by the selling of Luna. For Luna to go up from increasing Ust supply we'll need increased demand other than Anchor (or Anchor itself but in a sustainable manner; it's currently being propped up by the YR propped up by.. you guessed it, selling Luna)

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